Today's edges
Ranked by AI-detected gap between market-implied probability and model fair value. Every call is logged to the public track record.
The Field — Winner
Base-rate analysis: Historically, the winner of Eurovision is rarely one of the top few favorites far in advance, and the field is very large (typically 25-26 finalists from ~40 participants). With 30+ other countries competing, the probability that one of these 'Other' nations will win is overwhelmingly high. This category represents the vast majority of historical winners. Reference-class forecast: The 'Other' category represents a significant portion of the market, reflecting the high variability and unpredictability of Eurovision. Historically, many different countries have won, and dark horses frequently emerge. Given the large number of participating countries (typically 37-40), the probability of a winner coming from outside the top few named contenders is substantial, especially this far out from the contest. Red-team challenge: The 'Other' category holds significant value given the unpredictable nature of Eurovision, where dark horses and smaller nations frequently outperform expectations. With the contest two years away, many potential contenders are unknown, and the field is wide open for a new or less-fancied country to emerge as a strong candidate, especially considering recent trends of diverse winners.
The Field — Winner
Base-rate analysis: The 'Other' category holds significant value, especially two years out from the award, which will be heavily influenced by the 2026 World Cup. Many potential winners could emerge from strong World Cup campaigns, including established stars like Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane, or Rodri, or even new breakout talents. Historically, the winner often comes from a World Cup-winning or finalist team. Reference-class forecast: The 'Other' category holds substantial probability due to the long lead time and the emergence of new talents or resurgent players. Past Ballon d'Or winners often come from top-performing teams in major tournaments. With two full seasons before the award, many players could emerge as contenders, such as Kylian Mbappé, Phil Foden, Rodri, or even a surprise candidate. Red-team challenge: The 'Other' category is strong because the 2026 Ballon d'Or is still far out, allowing for new talents to emerge or established stars to have a career-defining season. A dark horse could win if a player like Kylian Mbappé (often a top contender) has an outstanding season with Real Madrid, or if a surprise World Cup 2026 winner produces a standout individual performer.
The Field — Winner
Base-rate analysis: The 'Other' category represents the remaining 13 teams. Historically, the AFL premiership is won by a variety of teams, and it's common for a team outside the top few contenders to emerge. Approximately 50-60% of premierships since 1990 have been won by teams not considered among the top 5 favorites at the start of the season, or by teams that significantly improved. This high base rate justifies a substantial probability for 'Other'. Reference-class forecast: The 'Other' category represents the remaining 13 teams. In the highly competitive AFL, a new premier emerges frequently. Over the past 20 seasons (2004-2023), 12 different clubs have won the premiership, indicating a high likelihood of a team outside the current top contenders breaking through. Given the two-year horizon, significant list changes, coaching changes, and player development can elevate a currently mid-tier team into contention, making 'Other' the most probable outcome. Red-team challenge: The 'Other' category represents a significant probability given the unpredictability of AFL over a two-year horizon. Teams like Carlton, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and potentially emerging clubs have strong lists and could easily contend by 2026. Injuries, coaching changes, and unexpected player development can rapidly shift the competitive landscape, making it highly likely a currently unlisted top contender could emerge.
Yes — Before 1 Jan 2027
Base-rate analysis: Historically, the average tenure for a UK Prime Minister since 1900 is approximately 3.7 years. Given the current PM Rishi Sunak took office in October 2022, a departure before January 2027 would imply a tenure of less than 4 years, which is common. Factors like upcoming general elections (expected in 2024), potential party leadership challenges, or resignations contribute to a significant probability of a change within this timeframe, aligning with historical patterns of PM turnover. Reference-class forecast: Historically, UK Prime Ministers who have served less than two years and faced significant political challenges, especially after a general election, have a moderate chance of leaving office within a similar timeframe. The current political climate, including potential post-election instability and the inherent volatility of PM tenures, suggests a slightly higher probability than the market implies. The Conservatives are trailing significantly in polls, and a new Labour PM would face the usual challenges of a new government, while a Conservative PM might face internal pressure after an election loss. Red-team challenge: The market consensus for 'No' suggests Sunak will remain PM past 2027, likely due to a potential Conservative recovery or a hung parliament. However, this view underestimates the historical volatility of UK premierships and the current political landscape. Sunak's approval ratings remain low, and a significant Conservative defeat in the next general election, which must occur by January 2025, would almost certainly lead to his resignation or removal. Even if the Conservatives manage a narrow victory or form a coalition, the pressure from within the party for new leadership after a difficult election campaign could be immense, especially if the result is perceived as underwhelming. Furthermore, unforeseen events or scandals are always a risk in politics, potentially forcing an early departure.